WTO Raises Merchandise Trade Growth Forecast to 3.9% Amid AI Boom

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly increased its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its initial prediction from 1.9% to 3.9%. This revised estimate reflects the impact of booming investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which have offset the negative effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on global trade.

The WTO attributes the strong performance of merchandise trade to the adaptability of supply chains and the significant boost provided by AI-related spending. According to the organization, global trade has continued to grow at a robust pace, with the first half of 2026 seeing an increase of 3.5% in merchandise trade. This growth was largely driven by the rapid expansion of the AI market.

The WTO’s revised forecast marks a significant departure from its initial prediction made earlier this spring for 1.9% growth in merchandise trade. The organization also predicts that global GDP will grow at 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027, despite anticipating continued disruptions to trade due to the Middle East conflict. These predictions take into account the decline in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the region by 47% in the first half of the year.

The WTO’s chief economist, Robert Steiger, noted that teams have been ‘surprised’ at the strength of the AI investment boom, which has continued to grow despite initial expectations of moderation due to market saturation. In fact, trade in AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with a remarkable increase of 67% year-on-year.